Gambling is a trap that is easy to fall into and difficult to get out of. Let’s look at how, thanks to knowledge and logic, to protect ourselves from this threat. It is necessary to understand what cognitive error a player gets into when playing in a casino or a gambling parlor. The gambler’s fallacy, also known as Monte Carlo’s mistake, the illusion of a player or the illusion of Alexei Ivanovich – It is based on the mistaken belief that independent random events are interdependent.
OBVERSE OR REVERSE?
For example: if the obverse fell out 5 times, the probability of the reverse is higher. This is nonsense because the probability of each side of the coin falling out in each attempt is 50%. Explaining, if we start with a series of coin tosses, the probability suggests that the same number of both sides of the coin will fall out. So the more tosses, the closer we get to a comparable number of both values. However, we are talking about the whole attempt, but not a single one. Assuming otherwise, we misconstrue reality (cognitive error) and contradict logic.
Examples can be multiplied endlessly: slot machines, dice, lotto, etc. Casino owners benefit from this by earning money especially for those who want to buy back or use gaming systems burdened by this error.
“ONE LAST TIME, I WILL WINN AND THAT’S IS END”
Making such a simple cognitive error often leads to an irresistible desire to play again. Sometimes the player doubles the bet because in the end, you will find a red color in roulette after a series of blacks. You can’t double it in the end. Playing with this system after the fifth doubling (assuming that we started from $ 10) we would have to put $ 320 on the table. This is 32 times more than what we started with! You can multiply it further – this is an exponential dependence.
If you keep losing and you really think that the probability of regaining the lost profits is low – let it go. What is lost will not come back. According to the sunken costs principle, only future benefits and costs count and they should determine your decision. It is not important that something is lost, because it does not matter anymore. If it was a mistake – accept it, and do not make it again.
THE CASINO WILL ALWAYS WIN
Casino or game betting will always win. An exception will only confirm this rule because if the winnings of the players exceeded their losses, casinos would go bankrupt. Let’s take the popular match betting for a change (obviously the random factor is smaller here – at least it seems so). The odds change over time, depending on the frequency of specific player choices, so that the bookmaker always gains.
It’s good to know (and avoid casinos – the casino always makes money, you don’t necessarily). Answering the question: “How not to lose to the casino? – Do not play with the casino, you will not lose. Then your winnings will be what you won’t drown in gambling.